Thursday, September 21, 2023

2021 NBA Playoffs: Lakers vs. Suns odds, line, picks, Game 3 predictions from model on 99-66 roll


The Los Angeles Lakers host the Phoenix Suns in a pivotal Game 3 matchup in the 2021 NBA Playoffs on Thursday. The best-of-seven series is tied at 1-1 after two games in Phoenix. The Suns took the opener in impressive fashion, with the Lakers responding in a 109-104 win in Game 2. The Lakers are 21-15 at home this season, with the Suns sporting a 24-12 road record in the regular season.

Tip-off is at 10 p.m. ET in Los Angeles. William Hill Sportsbook lists Los Angeles as a seven-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Suns odds. Before making any Suns vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $800 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the first full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen massive returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Suns in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Suns vs. Lakers:

  • Suns vs. Lakers spread: Lakers -7
  • Suns vs. Lakers over-under: 210.5 points
  • Suns vs. Lakers money line: Lakers -300, Suns +250
  • PHX: The Suns are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • LAL: The Lakers are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix has the better net rating in the series to this point, and the Suns are effective on both ends. The Suns finished the regular season with a top-seven unit in the NBA on both offense and defense, illustrating their success. Phoenix is highly efficient as a shooting team, ranking No. 2 in the NBA in field goal percentage (49.0 percent), 2-point percentage (56.3 percent) and free throw percentage (83.4 percent) during the regular season. 

On top of that, the Suns have high-value passers, generating 26.9 assists per game (No. 3 in NBA) and committing only 12.5 turnovers per game (No. 4 in NBA). Defensively, they do a fantastic job at limiting both 3-point shooting efficiency (35.4 percent) and assists (22.9 per game), and Phoenix has held the Lakers below their offensive efficiency baseline in both games in the series.

Why the Lakers can cover

Los Angeles is elite on the defensive end. The Lakers led the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, giving up only 106.8 points per 100 possessions. From there, they are a top-five team in myriad categories, including turnover creation rate (15.2 percent), three-point shooting allowed (35.2 percent), blocked shots (5.4 per game) and overall shooting efficiency allowed. 

The Lakers are also very strong on the defensive glass, pulling down 74.8 percent of available rebounds, and they effectively prevent opponents from getting to the free throw line. Offensively, it’s been an uneven season for the Lakers, but they have two superstar creators in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. From there, Los Angeles is elite at getting to the free throw line, generating 23.3 free throw attempts per game in the regular season.

How to make Suns vs. Lakers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 214 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Suns vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.


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