Thursday, September 21, 2023

2021 NBA Playoffs: Bucks vs. Heat odds, line, picks, Game 3 predictions from model on 99-66 roll


The Miami Heat take on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 3 of a first round series in the 2021 NBA Playoffs on Thursday. Miami aims to recover from an 0-2 deficit in the series after upsetting Milwaukee in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. The Bucks prevailed by a lopsided margin in Game 2, setting a franchise playoff record for 3-pointers. Milwaukee is 30-12 against Eastern Conference teams this season, with Miami entering at 24-18 against conference foes.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a 1.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $800 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the first full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen massive returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -1.5
  • Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 226.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -125, Heat +105
  • MIL: The Bucks are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee finished the regular season with a top-five offense in the NBA, scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions. In this series, the Bucks have been just as effective, and even more so in Game 2. The Bucks lead the 2021 NBA Playoffs in offensive rebound rate at more than 37 percent, and they remain one of the top five teams in the NBA in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Milwaukee also takes care of the ball, committing a turnover on 13.4 percent of possessions in the regular season, and the Bucks have bountiful offensive options. 

Defensively, the Bucks are also stellar, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA in the regular season and leading the playoffs in defensive efficiency (98.6 points allowed per 100 possessions). That comes with the No. 1 mark in the NBA in free throw attempts allowed (18.8 per game) and top-five regular season marks in field goal percentage allowed (45.6 percent), 2-point percentage allowed (50.7 percent), points allowed in the paint (43.1 per game), fast break points allowed (10.7 per game), fouls (17.3 per game) and defensive rebound rate (75.5 percent).

Why the Heat can cover

Though Miami suffered a hiccup in Game 2, it is a tremendous defensive team. The Heat allowed just 110.7 points per 100 possessions in the regular season, and they are strongly above-average in limiting opponents to just 45.9 percent shooting. Miami led the NBA in both fast break points allowed (10.4 per game) and points allowed in the paint (41.3 per game) this season, and the Heat are well-coached and talented. They are adept at creating turnovers, forcing 15.1 giveaways per game this season, and they limit free throw attempts (19.9 per game) effectively. 

On the offensive end, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both star-level players, and Duncan Robinson is one of the best perimeter shooters in the NBA. The Heat are a top-five team in 2-point shooting at 55.3 percent for the season, with top-10 marks in true shooting (58.1 percent), assists (26.1 per game), assist rate (67.1 percent) and free throw creation rate.

How to make Heat vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 224 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.


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